It’s troublesome to say a lot concerning the NFL with certainty when coaching camps are simply opening across the league, however one factor is abundantly clear: The Saints are screwed.
On Thursday evening it was revealed that All-Professional proper deal with Ryan Ramczyk was achieved for the yr resulting from points ensuing from his offseason knee surgical procedure. Sluggish restoration and problems led to Ramczyk lacking OTAs and the veteran minicamp, making the announcement an acknowledgment that the group isn’t assured he can contribute in 2024 — and it’d even spell the top to his time in New Orleans. Current accidents have been brutal for Ramczyk, who has missed 12 video games within the final three years, which is way extra pronounced as a result of excessive cap determine he’s carried.
It leaves the 2024 Saints with solely a prayer they are often aggressive, and it will get even worse down the road.
The instant impact on the New Orleans Saints
Whether or not or not you suppose the Saints might have been aggressive in 2024 is a matter of opinion. A 9-8 group a yr in the past, their greatest points have much less to do with strikes they made, and fairly ones the didn’t. Hamstrung by wage cap points, it resigned New Orleans to actually solely making one transfer of observe — signing DE Chase Younger from the 49ers.
As a way to make room for Younger the group successfully gutted its depth. A complete of 21 gamers have been both relinquished or signed with different groups, in comparison with bringing in 15 complete free brokers. The basic challenge is that each depth alternative the group made is a downgrade from a yr in the past, with the group’s core hope being that their starters might keep wholesome.
The group loses its greatest, most-important offensive lineman with Ramczyk gone. It leaves New Orleans banking on rookie Taliese Fuaga at left deal with, and 2022 1st spherical choose Trevor Penning on the appropriate. Penning modified positions this yr after enjoying so poorly in 2023 they changed him within the draft, and moved him down the depth chart.
This bodes poorly for Alvin Kamara, who struggled with inconsistent offensive line play in 2023. In consequence it places much more strain on Derek Carr to ship at QB, a man who remains to be essentially Derek Carr — a superb stat-stuffer who has struggled to win video games for his total profession.
Brass tacks: New Orleans is a worse group than a yr in the past, whereas having much less depth — with the remainder of the NFC South bettering.
2024 is simply the start…
The core challenge with the Ramczyk harm is that it probably ends the Saints final first rate likelihood to win the NFC South earlier than they want a complete rebuild. As we mentioned again in February the wage cap scenario for New Orleans is worse than any group within the league by a mile.
One might argue that the Dallas Cowboys have the identical points, and in some ways they do — however Dallas is struggling to piece collectively a roster that may make room for 3 reputable All-Professional skills in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. The Saints have the identical cap issues with not one of the expertise to indicate for it.
Because it stands proper now the Saints are already a projected $88M over the cap in 2025. The roster is affected by guys carrying cap hits means past their expertise ranges, with Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Derek Carr, and Ryan Ramczyk projecting to rely for a mind-blowing $160M of the Saints cap subsequent yr.
New Orleans banked on kicking the can down the highway and seeing the wage cap swell to cowl their future money owed, however it hasn’t occurred at a charge to maintain up with the Saints spending. In consequence the group has ludicrous future wage obligations, and no vital wins to indicate for it.
Moreover, the Ramczyk harm is the precise nightmare state of affairs our personal Matt Warren warned about with the danger of restructuring his deal.
“The opposite gamers on the high of the Saints’ cap hit record are principally over 30, so restructuring and including void years is riskier. RT Ryan Ramcyzk, DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis, TE/QB Taysom Hill, WR Michael Thomas, and SS Tyrann Mathieu all rely greater than $12 million on the cap in 2024 as of proper now. With older gamers like that, they’re extra prone to fall off a efficiency cliff or retire, and an enormous lifeless cap hit for them will throw a good greater wrench within the plan.”
Guess what? This yr the Saints re-worked Ramczyk’s deal so as to add void years in 2027 and 2028. Now he might be on the verge of retirement, which is able to activate an enormous lifeless cap hit for the Saints in consequence.
Is there a means out for the Saints?
Not a sensible one. Basically the one means this group can rebuild and stay aggressive is that if they’ve managed to hit on each single one of their draft picks and proceed to do that for the following 2-3 years. Enjoying rookies whereas slowly shedding their lifeless weight veterans is the one means out of this, and traditionally the Saints have been an uneven drafting group. They discover some actually superb expertise, but in addition make some vital whiffs — so to financial institution on this group hitting on each choose is little greater than a Hail Mary.
We’re left with a group that’s an getting older, overburdened camel doing every little thing simply to trudge ahead and be efficient. The season-ending harm to Ryan Ramczyk may be the straw that lastly broke its again.